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Decline can be avoided. Decline can be detected. Decline can be reversed. Amidst the desolate landscape of fallen great companies, Jim Collins began to wonder: How do the mighty fall? Can decline be detected early and avoided? How far can a company fall before the path toward doom becomes inevitable and unshakable? How can companies reverse course? In How the Mighty Fall, Collins confronts these questions, offering leaders the well-founded hope that they can learn how to stave off decline and, if they find themselves falling, reverse their course. Collins’ research project—more than four years in duration—uncovered five step-wise stages of decline: Stage 1: Hubris Born of Success Stage 2: Undisciplined Pursuit of More Stage 3: Denial of Risk and Peril Stage 4: Grasping for Salvation Stage 5: Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death By understanding these stages of decline, leaders can substantially reduce their chances of falling all the way to the bottom. Great companies can stumble, badly, and recover. Every institution, no matter how great, is vulnerable to decline. There is no law of nature that the most powerful will inevitably remain at the top. Anyone can fall and most eventually do. But, as Collins’ research emphasizes, some companies do indeed recover—in some cases, coming back even stronger—even after having crashed into the depths of Stage 4. Decline, it turns out, is largely self-inflicted, and the path to recovery lies largely within our own hands. We are not imprisoned by our circumstances, our history, or even our staggering defeats along the way. As long as we never get entirely knocked out of the game, hope always remains. The mighty can fall, but they can often rise again.

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1.如果一切顺利，会有什么好处？

2. 倘若情况不顺，会有什么糟糕的结局？

3. 面对糟糕的结局，你能接受吗？真能接受吗？

假设你正在一处悬崖上攀岩，一场暴风雨马上就要到来，但你不确信这场暴风雨是否会很大或者伴有危险的闪电。你必须当机立断：是继续往上攀岩，还是园路返回？在科罗拉多州黄金峡谷注明的裸岩，两位攀岩爱好者就遭遇了这一难题。他俩在攀岩途中听到了远处传来的隆隆雷声，需要决定是否要继续原定的登顶计划。这是她们不妨考虑一下上述三个问题：如果暴风雨很快过去了会怎样？她们可以按照原计划顺利登顶；如果他们正在岩石上攀岩，暴风雨来临时电闪雷鸣该怎么办？他们很可能会命丧酒泉。然而他们还是决定继续攀登。他们纲要盘上岩顶，恰巧暴风雨正好经过峡谷。倏然间，他们身上的金属防护绳起电，冒出了火花。随着“砰”的一声巨响，闪电击中了位于上方的攀岩爱好者，导致其当场罹难。

当我们用这种思维方式考虑问题的时候，概率也发挥着比较大的影响。如果不利局面出现的概率是零或者通常很多小，要与不利局面出现概率较高、不稳定或者高度不确定的情形区别开来，否则我们就不敢登上上午航班了，更别提去攀爬黄金峡谷的罗岩或者约塞米蒂峡谷里的酋长岩了。上述例子里的两位攀岩者明明知道出现雷暴天气的可能性极大，依然毛线继续攀岩，造成了风险不对称的局面（好处很少，灾难性的后果很严重），最终酿成了无法挽回的悲剧。

2008年的金融危机也想我们证明，如果不能驾驭这些风险，很有可能会造成毁灭公司的严重后果。随着房地产市场的泡沫越吹越大，随之而来的风险也越来越大。金融衍生产品的杠杆率急剧提高，那些以房贷为支撑的金融衍生产品的敞口风险越来越大，这一切到底有什么好处呢》如果一切都顺风顺水的话，那么也就意味着会创造更多的利润。但如果整个市场的泡沫都破灭了，我们就会进入时尚风险最大的危机时期，那么我们又该承受怎样的后果？美林证券被美国银行收购；...

大家不妨就下面两种方法的缺陷比较一番：

方法一：对于自己的成功做到功成而不居（我们之所以成功，只是因为运气好，或是占了天时地利，抑或靠吃老本，或是因为没有强劲的对手而已），因此，时刻带着危机感去思考倘若好运不复存在，该如何让自己变得更强大、脚跟站得更稳。如果你多考虑一下公司的缺陷，万一这种思维方式不对的话，你会有什么样的损失呢？想必没什么不好的，如果你错了，这种自觉的反思会让你变得更加强大。

方法二：假设你把成功都归因于自己过人的能力（“我们这么棒、这么聪明、这么有创意、这么出色，我们当然应该获得成功”），如果你错了，你会遭受什么损失呢？这种损失可能是很惨重的。如果你错了，某天早上醒过来，你会发现自己惊慌失措，自己的弱点都暴露出来了，那是已经为时已晚了。

然而，现实中的一切并不都是清晰可辨的，很多情形都很令人困惑，杂乱且模糊不清，需要你自己加以解读。实际上，最危险的并不是忽略确凿无疑的事实，而是对模棱两可的情形判断失误，一旦情形不利，你将陷入灾难缠身的险境。

书籍介绍

Decline can be avoided. Decline can be detected. Decline can be reversed. Amidst the desolate landscape of fallen great companies, Jim Collins began to wonder: How do the mighty fall? Can decline be detected early and avoided? How far can a company fall before the path toward doom becomes inevitable and unshakable? How can companies reverse course? In How the Mighty Fall, Collins confronts these questions, offering leaders the well-founded hope that they can learn how to stave off decline and, if they find themselves falling, reverse their course. Collins’ research project—more than four years in duration—uncovered five step-wise stages of decline: Stage 1: Hubris Born of Success Stage 2: Undisciplined Pursuit of More Stage 3: Denial of Risk and Peril Stage 4: Grasping for Salvation Stage 5: Capitulation to Irrelevance or Death By understanding these stages of decline, leaders can substantially reduce their chances of falling all the way to the bottom. Great companies can stumble, badly, and recover. Every institution, no matter how great, is vulnerable to decline. There is no law of nature that the most powerful will inevitably remain at the top. Anyone can fall and most eventually do. But, as Collins’ research emphasizes, some companies do indeed recover—in some cases, coming back even stronger—even after having crashed into the depths of Stage 4. Decline, it turns out, is largely self-inflicted, and the path to recovery lies largely within our own hands. We are not imprisoned by our circumstances, our history, or even our staggering defeats along the way. As long as we never get entirely knocked out of the game, hope always remains. The mighty can fall, but they can often rise again.