EVERYTHING IS OBVIOUS(ISBN=9780385531689) pdf pdb 阿里云 极速 mobi caj kindle 下载

　　Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world?

Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed?

Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can

CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher

pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of

common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science

pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the

explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in

life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less

useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of

historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense

reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we

understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and

in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and

economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives;

yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate

how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social

trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential

people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these

“influencers” in advance. And although successful products or

companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of

their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit

product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for

experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts

argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as

understand the present—an argument that has important implications

in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and

everyday life.

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