BLACK SWAN, THE (EXP)(ISBN=9780812979183) pdf pdb 阿里云 极速 mobi caj kindle 下载

　A black swan is a highly improbable event with three

principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a

massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that

makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The

astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about

our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal

lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until

after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that

humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused

on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time

and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know.

We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too

vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and

not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the

“impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking

we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the

irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to

surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book,

Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He

offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and

benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black

Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly

entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to

tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from

cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan

is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

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　　Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing

himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and

knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part

no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently taking a break as

Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University

of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller

Fooled by Randomness, has been published in nineteen

languages. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

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