Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach To Forecasting 9780470415023 pdf pdb 阿里云 极速 mobi caj kindle 下载

　　AdetailedguideontheprocessofimprovingbusinessforecastingThispractitioner–focusedbookprovidesreaderswithreal,provenprocesses,methodologies,andperformancemetricsthatcanbeappliedimmediatelywithsignificantimprovementinforecastaccuracy.Filledwithreal–lifeexamplesandcasestudiestoillustratebothbest–in–classapproachesaswellasinitialstart–upapproaches,itfeaturescoverageoftopicsincludingmythsversusrealityofforecasting,howtoperformastrategicvalueassessment,andculturalbarriersinforecasting.Focusedontheimplementationandintegrationofsalesforecastingandmarketinganalysis,thisbookoutlinesasystematicapproachthatisadata–based,mathematicallyderivedframeworkusingdomainknowledgetofacilitate"whatif"simulationsforstrategic/tacticalplanning.CharlesChase(Cary,NC)istheBusinessEnablementManagerforSASManufacturingandSupplyChainGlobalPractice.

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　　Charles W. Chase, Jr., is the Business Enablement Manager at SAS Manufacturing and Supply Chain Global Practice, where he is the principal architect and strategist for delivering demand planning and forecasting solutions to improve SAS customers' supply chain efficiencies. He has more than twenty-six years of experience in the consumer packaged goods industry, and is an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics, and supply chain management.

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　　"This first–rate survey should appeal to general as well as academic readers. The focus on irregular, internal, and asymmetric war, ranging from local insurgencies to imperial expeditions, is a welcome shift from the standard western–centric emphasis on campaigns and battles. The inclusion of such "out of area" conflicts as the War of the Pacific adds a valuable perspective. And the footnotes by themselves are worth the purchase price as a bibliography."Dennis Showalter, Colorado College?"Jeremy Black has given us a masterful overview of the period 1800–1914, not just for the West but for the world as a whole, analyzing the role of military power as an agent of change in history, and historical experience as an agent of change for armies and navies. Black considers the domestic significance of armed forces as well as their international role, using the concept of tasking to take a fresh approach to his topic."Lawrence Sondhaus, University of Indianapolis?"Jeremy Black offers an alternative reading of military history, eschewing the linear teleology of most modernization theses in favour of explanations based on contingency and a multi–track approach placing western development alongside that elsewhere in the world. The result is a refreshingly clear, crisp and succinct overview of warfare from the end of the eighteenth century until the First World War."Peter Wilson, University of Hull

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Praise for Demand-Driven Forecasting A Structured Approach to Forecasting "There are authors of advanced forecasting books who take an academic approach to explaining forecast modeling that focuses on the construction of arcane algorithms and mathematical proof that are not very useful for forecasting practitioners. Then, there are other authors who take a general approach to explaining demand planning, but gloss over technical content required of modern forecasters. Neither of these approaches is well-suited for helping business forecasters critically identify the best demand data sources, effectively apply appropriate statistical forecasting methods, and properly design efficient demand planning processes. In Demand-Driven Forecasting, Chase fills this void in the literature and provides the reader with concise explanations for advanced statistical methods and credible business advice for improving ways to predict demand for products and services. Whether you are an experienced professional forecasting manager, or a novice forecast analyst, you will find this book a valuable resource for your professional development." --Daniel Kiely, Senior Manager, Epidemiology, Forecasting and Analytics, Celgene Corporation "Charlie Chase has given forecasters a clear, responsible approach for ending the timeless tug of war between the need for 'forecast rigor' and the call for greater inclusion of 'client judgment.' By advancing the use of 'domain knowledge' and hypothesis testing to enrich base-case forecasts, he has empowered professional forecasters to step up and impact their companies' business results favorably and profoundly, all the while enhancing the organizational stature of forecasters broadly." --Bob Woodard, Vice President, Global Consumer and Customer Insights, Campbell Soup Company