The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable 黑天鹅 9780141034591 pdf pdb 阿里云 极速 mobi caj kindle 下载

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street

Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all

forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell

us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read

a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events

that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their

impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they

happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore

the ‘experts’, The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to

predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty.

Prologue

PART ONE UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY,OF HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

Chapter 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan

Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute

Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days,or How Not to be a Sucker

Chapter 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy

Chapter 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope

Chapter 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck:The Problem of Silent

Evidence

Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy,or The Uncertainty of the Nerd

PART TWO WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction

Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop

Chapter 12 Epistemocracy,a Dream

Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter,of What Do You Do if you Cannot

Predict?

PART THREE THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

Chapter 14 From Mediocristan,and Back

Chapter 15 The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud

Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness

Chapter 17 Locke's Mandmen,or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places

Chapter 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony

Chapter 19 Half and Half,or How to Get Even with the Black

Swan

Epilogue:Yevgenia's White Swans

Acknowledgments

Glossary

Notes

Bibliography

Index

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself

in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part

literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical

trader, he is currently the Dean’s Professor in the Scien

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你有没有奇怪过，为什么那么多在校成绩好的人最后一事无成，而那些学业落后的人却在赚大钱，买钻石，甚至获得某个真正学科（比如医学）的诺贝尔奖？这有些或许是出于运气，但学校知识的简化与反启蒙特性阻碍了人们对现实生活的理解。在智商测试以及任何学术考试（包括体育）中，约翰博士的成绩都会极大地超过肥托尼。但肥托尼会在任何其他原生态、现实生活的环境中打败约翰博士。实际上，肥托尼虽然缺乏文化，却对现实以及自己的博学有着极大的兴趣。在我看来，从实际意义上讲，他比约翰博士更讲究科学性，虽然从社会意义上不一定。

错过列车只有在你追赶它时才是痛苦的！同样，不能达到别人对你期望的成功，只有在它也是你所追求的东西时才是痛苦的。

我有时惊异于为什么人们会因为一顿不好吃的饭、一杯冷咖啡、一次社交挫折或粗鲁的接待而伤心一天或者感到愤怒。回忆一下，我在第八章讨论过人们难过看到自己生活中发生的事件的真实概率。我们很容易忘记我们活着本身就是极大的运气，一个可能性微小的事件，一个极大的偶然。

想象一下一个10亿倍于地球的行星边上的一粒尘埃。这粒尘埃就代表你出生的概率，庞大的行星则代表相反的概率。所以不要再为小事烦恼了。不要再像一个忘恩负义者，得到一座城堡，还要介意浴室里的霉菌。不要再检查别人赠与你的马匹的牙齿，请记住，你就是黑天鹅。

做决策时，你只需要了解事件的影响（这是你能知道的），不需要了解事件的可能性（这是你不可能知道的），这一思想就是不确定的核心思想。

电影的成功严重依赖于传染行为。这种传染行为不仅影响电影，还似乎对相当多的文化产品都有影响。人们喜欢艺术作品，不仅仅是因为艺术品本身，还是为了使自己感到属于某个群体。通过模仿，人们彼此靠近了，也就是说，靠近了其他模仿者，这能赶走孤独。

我们很容易忘记我们活着本身就是极大的运气，一个可能性微小的事件，一个极大的偶然。

想象一个10亿倍于地球的行星边上的一粒尘埃。这里尘埃就代表了你出生的概率。所以不要再为小事烦恼了。不要再像一个忘恩负义者，得到了一座城堡，还要介意浴室里的霉菌。不要再检查别人赠与你的马匹的牙齿，请记住，你就是黑天鹅。

这大概才是真正的自信：冷观世界而不需要找理由满足自我膨胀的欲望。

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书籍介绍

`Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious,

`Hugely enjoyable - compelling'

`Idiosyncratically brilliant'

`A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected'

`A deeply intelligent, provocative book'

'Like the conversation of raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling ... Beware the Black Swan' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

'The Black Swan confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

'A deeply intelligent, provocative book ... Taleb succeeds in

bringing sceptical empiricism to the masses' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

'A richly enjoyable read with an important message' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

'A provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of The Wisdom of

Crowds and The Tipping Point' --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.